Macron’s last-ditch attempt to stall the EU’s mega trade deal with South America

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron is heading to Latin America on a whirlwind tour with a clear objective: to delay a massive regional trade deal and extract as many concessions as he can.
France scaled up its campaign against the deal with the countries of the Mercosur bloc this week. On Tuesday, more than 600 French lawmakers signed a letter calling for the agreement to be dropped. Prime Minister Michel Barnier headed to Brussels the next day to ensure France’s argument was heard.
After meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her outgoing trade czar, Valdis Dombrovskis, Barnier stood before reporters on the doorstep of the Berlaymont and slammed the deal as “disastrous.”
Von der Leyen told Barnier that she might make an announcement at the summit of Mercosur countries in early December, as previously reported by POLITICO. The French prime minister warned von der Leyen that France could “explode” if a deal is signed and urged a delay, according to a French diplomat who was not authorized to be named while speaking candidly about a sensitive file. An adviser to Barnier said he was not negotiating concessions with von der Leyen, but expressing his “outright refusal” of the deal as it stands.
“The main card Paris is playing right now is political,” said an official in the European Parliament who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with European norms. “They want to turn [Mercosur] into a public debate to get political leverage [and] play public opinion against Brussels.”
On Monday, when Macron is due to meet Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other world leaders at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, French farmers will again take to the streets to voice their rejection of the deal. Their angry protests earlier this year succeeded in getting Brussels to put the Mercosur talks on ice and back down on green rules opposed by European agriculture.
Aversion to the deal spans the French political spectrum and is widespread among the public. Powerful industry lobby Medef has so far been the only major nongovernmental organization to speak up in favor of the agreement. 
Still, Brussels keeps telling France it has little to worry about and pointing to the potential benefits of the trade pact, like opening up new markets for French wine and dairy producers.
“There is something to gain for the French agricultural sector in the Mercosur deal,” a European Commission official said.
Earlier this year, Macron managed to slow the Mercosur talks with a single text message to von der Leyen, but the president has lost significant political capital since then. After his party posted dismal results during June’s European election, Macron responded with a gamble, holding a snap general election that cost his party its parliamentary majority and forced it into a fragile power-sharing arrangement with Barnier’s conservatives.
With France having now lost much of its influence on the EU stage, Macron is unlikely to be able to repeat such a feat. 
The French know the battle to rally countries to kill off the Mercosur deal is already lost, so the president will focus on delaying the arrangement and extracting concessions, according to several people with knowledge of talks who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic. 
“French authorities have been clear, the president has said it, the prime minister has said it, the agreement is not acceptable as it is,” an Elysée official told reporters on Thursday. “Our demands are known,” she added, noting that France wants measures requiring Mercosur farmers to meet EU production standards.
Trade Minister Sophie Primas told POLITICO that signing the deal as currently constructed would fuel discontent and protests in France and constitute “a breach in the trust of the French in Europe.”
“If Mercosur goes through without the approval of the two branches of the French parliament and without the support of public opinion, that will have serious political consequences,” she said.
During his seven-day trip to Latin America, Macron will also meet with Javier Milei, the chainsaw-wielding president of Argentina, a large beef-producing country whose exports, alongside Brazil’s, are seen as a threat by French beef producers. 
But it is Macron’s expected bilateral meeting with Lula on the sidelines of the G20 that could prove decisive in unblocking the situation.
“The key leaders are Macron and Lula. If they say that we should move forward, then we can move forward,” said a diplomat from a Mercosur country. “The outcome often depends on a brief talk, in a single meeting.” 
Should Macron and Lula find sufficient common ground, France could claim victory if some of its long-standing demands are taken into account in the final text. 
For one, Paris worries that a glut of cheap agricultural products would flood the French market and undercut its farmers. In addition to requiring Mercosur farmers to meet production standards that are similar to those of their European counterparts, France wants any breach of the commitments made under the Paris climate agreement to be punished by sanctions, such as suspending the deal.
As previously revealed by POLITICO, a compensation fund has already been mooted in an effort to placate France. But according to one European diplomat, “the idea isn’t ripe yet, and the amount [earmarked] for it isn’t clear.” Farmers were quick to slam that proposal, interpreting it as a sign that the French government was losing its crusade to block the deal. 
The Elysée official who spoke to reporters said the fund “is part of the discussion, but at this stage it’s not something that will change our position.”
The European Commission is working to reassure Paris that it is trying to convince Mercosur countries to accept French demands. A Commission official said this week that French requests — a statement that the Paris Agreement is an essential element of the deal, and the imposition of binding obligations against deforestation — are now the two main negotiation points for Brussels in the last stretch of talks.